Orlando/Orange County, Florida Market Update
Population, 2005: 1,043,434 - Orange County ranks # 5 of Florida's 67 counties in population.Households, 2005: 389,789
Homeownership Rate 65.9
|
Rank |
Labor market |
Employment score |
Private-sector jobs (June 2007) |
Percent growth in private-sector jobs (2002-07) |
Percent growth in private-sector jobs (2006-07) |
Raw growth in private-sector jobs (2002-07) |
Raw growth in private-sector jobs (2006-07) |
Unemployment rate (June 2007) |
|
12 |
Orlando |
10.27 |
983,400 |
21.5% |
2.0% |
173,900 |
19,200 |
3.6% |
Population Projections
- In 2030, Orange County is projected to have a population of 1,702,936, ranking it # 4 of Florida's 67 counties.
Projected Total Population, Orange County, 2005-2030
|
2005 |
2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 |
| 1,043,434 | 1,197,657 | 1,340,558 | 1,473,645 | 1,592,247 | 1,702,936 |
After the boom from 2000 to 2005, home prices have
lost some ground, though very modestly. Inventories are still very high but a
sharp reduction in new home construction and new listing on the market is
helping to control the overall inventory situation. Resetting loans and the
rising number of foreclosures related to the subprime fallout are clearly
negative factors, but the impact will be offset by the fundamentals of the
healthy local economy. It is possible, with job gains continuing at a
respectable pace, for prices to actually turn up as we continue through 2008.
Despite some media reports of the worst housing market conditions since the
early 1 990s, or even since the Great Depression, the recent home price declines
have been negligible at the local level. Unlike past local housing downturns,
which were accompanied with severe job cuts, the local economy continues to add
jobs. Apartment rents have been rising at the highest pace in five years, which
will begin to encourage some renters to seriously consider ownership. Mortgage
rates have also been falling recently and stood near a historic low of 6.5% for
prime borrowers. Rates could be even more favorable in upcoming months as the
Federal Reserve continues to cut the federal funds rate and as there are clear
signs of contained inflation. A revival in FHA loans, which had lost substantial
market share to the risky subprime market, will provide funding for lowto-moderate
income households at much more attractive mortgage rates. If a modernization of
FHA loans is implemented including lower initial payment requirements, higher
loan limits, and risk-based pricing then there could be a surge in FHA loan
usage.
The outlook is positive. Homebuilders having drastically cut production will
help minimize prolonged oversupply conditions. Further production cuts by
builders, which is encouraged, will help the market to more quickly return to a
healthy state. On the demand side, job gains have added to the number of
potential homebuyers. Historical relationships imply roughly one additional
homeowner for every two additional new jobs. Since the peak of the housing
market two years ago, the local market added 67,000 net new jobs (August 2007 vs
August 2005). A rise in home sales and a strengthening in home prices appear
imminent.
Summary of Activity
|
|
Greater Orlando |
U.S. Average |
|
Price Activity |
|
|
|
1-year Appreciation (2007 Q2) |
-1.4% |
-1.1% |
|
3-year Appreciation (2007 Q2) |
55.8% |
15.4% |
|
3-year Housing Equity Gain |
$95,000 |
$29,900 |
|
Affordability |
|
|
|
Current Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income |
21% |
22% |
|
Historical Local Average |
19% |
22% |
|
Local Fundamentals 1-year Job Additions (2007 August) |
29,600 |
Not Comparable |
|
3-year Job Additions (2007 August) |
125,400 |
Not Comparable |
|
1-year Job Growth Rate |
2.7% |
1.3% |
|
3-year Job Growth Rate |
12.8% |
5.0% |
|
1-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes |
1.9 |
1.5 |
|
3-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes |
1.9 |
1 .7 |